CHDS Outstanding Thesis Award Winner

From the Mariel boatlift in the 1980s to the recent mass migration of familial units from the Northern Triangle in 2019, the United States has consistently been unprepared to handle mass migration events. With the world approximately 1.0°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, climatic-driven migration events will now challenge the U.S. borders. This thesis explores how the United States might prepare to handle cross-border climate change-induced migration from a homeland security perspective. Using the research methodology of scenario planning, this study assesses the many ways the future might unfold by focusing on intersecting global megatrends and an array of global warming projections in the year 2050. As a result, this thesis finds that regardless of how the world chooses to combat global warming in the coming decades, migration will continue. If the United States is to prepare for such a future, regional agreements and national legislation will be necessary. In turn, if leveraged correctly, climate migrants can help the United States compete with future emerging economies. This thesis ultimately concludes that a proactive approach to cross-border climate change-induced migration might not only benefit climate migrants but also the future resiliency of United States well into the mid-century.